The United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union, according to report in London Friday morning based on a partial count of results. The British pound fell to a 31-year low as the “leave” camp appeared to win a dramatic and historic referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. With more 70% of votes counted, the “leave” side was ahead by about half a million votes.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has warned that Britain would be treated as a “third party” and have no access to the Single Market.
“If Britain votes to leave the EU, it will no longer be able to benefit from the advantages of the European common market. And any negotiation will involve the 27 remaining EU members with someone who would then be a third party,” Mrs Merkel said.
“I can’t imagine that (its status after leaving) would be any kind of advantage, but the decision is ultimately up to the Britons,” she added.
Michel Sapin, the French finance minister, said Brexit will be a “difficulty for Europe, for ourselves but first and foremost a tragedy for Britain.”
What happens if Britain leaves the EU
The process of leaving the EU will take years
A Brexit vote is not legally binding, and there are a few ways it could theoretically be blocked or overturned. However “it would be seen as political suicide to go against the will of the people as expressed in a referendum.”
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union establishes the procedures for a member state to withdraw from the EU. It requires the member state to notify the EU of its withdrawal and obliges the EU to then try to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with that state.
Once Britain invokes Article 50, it will have a two-year window in which to negotiate a new treaty to replace the terms of EU membership. Britain and EU leaders would have to hash out issues like trade tariffs, migration, and the regulation of everything from cars to agriculture.
In the best-case scenario, Britain may be able to negotiate access to the European market that isn’t that different from what it has now. Norway is not a member of the EU, but it has agreed to abide by a number of EU rules in exchange for favorable access to the European Common Market.
The vote could topple the British
British Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t want to hold a vote on Brexit at all. But in 2014, he faced growing pressure from the populist right over immigration and Britain’s EU membership. To mollify dissenters in his own party and stop the rise of the far-right UK Independence Party, Cameron promised to hold a referendum on leaving the EU if his Conservative Party won the 2015 election.
The Conservatives surprised pollsters by winning an outright majority in Parliament, and Cameron kept his promise. But he wasn’t personally in favor of exiting the EU, and he campaigned vigorously for a “Remain” vote. At the same time, he allowed other members of his government to campaign on the other side. This created the spectacle of senior members of the UK government, from the same party, campaigning on opposite sides of one of the biggest issues in British politics in decades.
The victory of the “Leave” campaign could fatally weaken Cameron’s standing within his own party. Cameron had vowed to continue in office even if voters rejected his stance on EU membership. But that position may prove untenable. A revolt among Conservative members of Parliament could force him out of office. That could lead to a new Conservative government run by a more Euroskeptical prime minister, or it could lead to new elections.
A British exit could be bad for the British economy
In the short run, uncertainty about Britain’s future relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, could push the UK into a recession.
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